“We are living the end of an era”. With these words, Professor Ludger Kühnhardt opened his recent lecture at the School of Global Politics, ASERI, highlighting the precarious state of the current global order. We have entered a dangerous transitional phase, where the international system, which for decades ensured stability, is now shaken by multiple crises: the return of war on European soil, the erosion of multilateralism, uncertainty about the role of the United States, and the rise of new powers. In this context, Europe stands at a crossroads: adapt to this new reality or risk becoming irrelevant.

For years, many believed that the liberal order established after 1945 was a solid and enduring structure. Following the end of the Cold War, Western optimism led to the assumption that globalization and the spread of democracy would usher in an era of peace and progress. But, as Kühnhardt pointed out, this was a “short-sighted” vision. The world was never truly unipolar, and the rebalancing of global power was only a matter of time.

Europe lived under the illusion that economic integration would suffice to guarantee security and political influence. However, events such as the conflict in Ukraine and tensions with the United States during the Trump presidency have demonstrated that the EU can no longer rely on old paradigms. The liberal order is in crisis not only due to external pressures but also because of the internal fragility of the West itself, where the consensus on democratic values is eroding.

One of the most overlooked factors in Europe’s decline is demographic change. As Kühnhardt illustrated, Europe’s global weight is drastically diminishing: today, the continent represents only 6% of the world’s population, and its share of global GDP has fallen to 14.5%. The aging population is reducing the capacity for innovation and investment in the future, while regions like Asia and Africa are experiencing exponential growth.

This demographic decline is not just a statistical reality but a political one, influencing how Europe addresses global challenges. An “aging” continent tends to prioritize stability and conservation over change and risk, slowing down the EU’s ability to react to geopolitical transformations. If Europe does not find a way to compensate for this disadvantage, it risks becoming increasingly marginal on the international stage.

Europe’s response to recent crises has been characterized by slowness and fragmentation. Kühnhardt highlighted that the old method of functional integration - based on gradual, incremental steps - is no longer sufficient in a world where decisions need to be rapid and effective. The war in Ukraine exposed Europe’s difficulty in responding in a unified manner to security challenges, while the inability to develop a common industrial policy has left the EU vulnerable to technological competition with the United States and China.

Another major weakness is the absence of a genuinely integrated foreign and defense policy. Without credible deterrence capabilities, Europe remains dependent on the United States for its security, while actors like Russia and China exploit its internal divisions. As Kühnhardt emphasized, the debate on strategic autonomy is still stuck between ambitious declarations and the reality of an EU incapable of overcoming national vetoes on crucial issues.

Despite these weaknesses, Kühnhardt does not see Europe’s decline as inevitable. The EU still has room to reaffirm its role, but it requires radical choices. He outlined three key priorities for Europe to address the challenges of the new global order; to navigate the new global landscape, Europe must accelerate political and strategic integration by eliminating the right of veto in foreign and security policy. This would enable quicker and more effective decision-making, allowing the EU to act as an autonomous geopolitical actor. Simultaneously, investing in innovation and technology is essential to bridge the competitive gap with the United States and China, creating European champions in key sectors such as artificial intelligence, green energy, and common defense. However, without reforming the economic governance model, these goals risk remaining unattainable. The current system of rigid fiscal rules and national budgets is no longer sustainable, necessitating the adoption of common investment tools, including a permanent defense fund and a European industrial plan. These measures would reduce strategic dependence on external actors and ensure greater economic and geopolitical resilience for the EU.

Europe still has a window of opportunity to strengthen itself, but time is running out. The crisis of the liberal order is not a temporary anomaly but a structural change that demands swift and decisive responses. Without leadership capable of facing this new reality, the EU risks being relegated to the margins of history.

As Kühnhardt stated, “Transitions are always dangerous moments. Only those who know how to ask the right questions and make difficult decisions can survive these changes”. Europe now faces this challenge: remain stagnant and accept decline or find the courage to finally become a global actor.