On the day of Donald Trump's second-term inauguration, the School of Global Politics at ASERI hosted the lecture Global Politics after the US Elections, featuring G. John Ikenberry and Andrea Locatelli. The event provided an opportunity to reflect on the new international balance and the implications of Trump’s re-election for the global order. Director Damiano Palano emphasized Ikenberry’s contribution to international relations theory, particularly regarding the transformations of the liberal order, and his longstanding connection with ASERI.

Trump’s re-election is not an anomaly but rather a reflection of a deeper trend in American politics. Ikenberry challenged the dominant interpretation that viewed the 2016 election as a “distortion of the flow of history”, instead arguing that Trump embodies an entrenched trajectory in U.S. politics. His transactional view of power and skepticism toward multilateralism are not merely temporary deviations but indicators of the structural transformation of American hegemony. Trump's unpredictability and his strategy based on the bad man theory make it difficult to anticipate his moves. Already in his first term, his decisions undermined the multilateral system, as demonstrated by the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and threats to NATO. Now, with control of Congress and a favorable Supreme Court, his administration could take on an even more radical character, with disruptive effects on international balances.

While Trump enjoys unprecedented freedom of action, institutional and political constraints could limit his most extreme actions. The concept of policy feedback, as Ikenberry explained, suggests that political and economic sustainability always imposes a certain degree of realism. Even a president who challenges conventions must ensure the stability of the system, avoiding actions that undermine the conditions of his own power. However, the erosion of democratic institutions is a source of instability, both in the United States and globally. The delegitimization of the judiciary, the press, and the electoral system - pursued by Trump in his first term - has weakened traditional mechanisms of power balance. While this strengthens his position in the short term, it could also backfire, undermining governance capacity and increasing political uncertainty.

The decline of the liberal order is accompanied by the rise of a new global configuration, characterized by a tripolar system. According to Ikenberry, competition among three blocs - the global West (United States and Europe), the global East (China, Russia, and allies), and the global South (the developing world) - is set to redefine the dynamics of international governance. American hegemony, which has ensured stability for over seventy years, appears increasingly fragile in the face of these transformations. The growing interdependence of global crises, from geopolitics to technology, amplifies the vulnerabilities of the international system. Ikenberry introduced the concept of poly-crisis, emphasizing how climate change, pandemics, geopolitical tensions, and the technological revolution can no longer be addressed in isolation. The competition between the United States and China is no longer merely economic and military but also ideological and technological, with profound implications for the stability of the global order.

The future of the liberal order remains uncertain. Traditional multilateral institutions, from the G7 to the G20, appear increasingly ineffective, while the United States seems reluctant to play a leading role. However, according to Ikenberry, the fate of the international order is not yet sealed. If liberal democracies wish to avoid complete fragmentation, they must redefine cooperation strategies and strengthen their commitment to defending democratic principles. Global order is entering a phase of structural uncertainty, where past rules are no longer sufficient to guarantee stability and security. Trump’s re-election could accelerate the disintegration of the multilateral system, but political and economic constraints may limit its most extreme effects. In any case, the international landscape is bound to change, and the future of global relations will depend on the ability of international actors to adapt to new challenges.

Ikenberry outlines several possible scenarios for the future of the world order. One possibility is that the tripolar world stabilizes in a precarious balance, where no actor manages to assert clear dominance over the others. A second hypothesis is that, once Trump’s presidency ends, the United States attempts to revive its global leadership, though this would require greater engagement with the Global South. Finally, there is the risk that the absence of clear leadership leads to a prolonged phase of fragmentation and conflict. In this perspective, the ability to offer a compelling narrative of the future becomes a crucial element. Global leadership will not be defined solely by economic and military power but also by the capacity to provide a governance model and a vision of the world capable of attracting consensus.

Trump, however, may still deliver surprises, given his transactional and unpredictable approach. Ikenberry stresses that, although the president enjoys significant room for maneuver, there are structural limits that will condition his actions. The first is time: the mandate lasts four years, but the midterm elections could already alter the political context in two years. The second concerns the economy: protectionist policies and trade wars could have negative repercussions on the United States itself. The third is related to strategic contradictions: Trump seeks to reduce international commitments, but in doing so, he risks alienating allies whom he still needs.

In conclusion, the future of global politics remains fraught with uncertainties, not least the possibility of unexpected events. Quoting Harold Macmillan’s famous phrase - “Events, dear boy, events” - Ikenberry reminds us that unforeseen variables could reshape the international agenda in the coming years, leading to developments that are difficult to anticipate, even for the most unpredictable of political actors.