1st Module - Scenario analysis: methodological introduction, main characteristics and aims.
Introduction to scenario analysis as a tool to support strategic decisions. Main characteristics, usefulness and areas of application. Difference Between Forecasting and Scenarios. Types of uncertainty and limits of linear forecasting. Analysis of the structural and economic drivers of the international system, with attention to the political, economic, technological and energy dimensions. Mapping of relevant actors and their strategies, interests and capabilities, as a basis for the construction of coherent scenarios.
2nd Module - Scenario construction: methodologies and techniques
Overview of the main scenario planning methodologies and their areas of application. Techniques to support the construction of scenarios, including morphological analysis, verification of internal coherence and analysis of interdependencies. Guided exercises to apply methodological tools.
3rd Module - Scenario analysis in the geopolitical and geoeconomic fields
Application of scenario analysis to geopolitical dynamics: power competition, regional crises, balance of power and stability/instability dynamics. Application to geo-economic and financial dimensions: value chains, sanctions, industrial policies, energy markets, international finance and economic interdependencies. In-depth studies and application examples.
4th Module - Geostrategic scenarios
Construction of scenarios in the field of defense and security: traditional and hybrid threats, military competition, strategic resilience and crisis management.
Module 5 - Communicating scenarios to the decision-maker
Translation of scenarios into operational implications and strategic options. How to structure and present a scenario to a decision-maker: briefings, recommendations, monitoring indicators and effective communication of uncertainty.
6th Module - Application Workshop "Building and presenting scenarios in a complex landscape"
Practical workshop in which participants, divided into groups, develop a scenario analysis on an assigned case study. Construction of scenarios, identification of strategic implications and preparation of a briefing for the decision-maker.
Presentation of the final papers, evaluation and discussion with the teacher.
Webinars
In-depth analysis of critical issues that emerged during the workshop, common errors in scenario analysis and professional applications.
Final test
Online test aimed at verifying the understanding of the key concepts and the ability to apply the methodologies learned.
